Short and Snappy Season (and Blackburn) Preview

By: Thad | August 13th, 2009

What more is there to say about the most talked about club of the summer?

You’ll have to click on to find out, but let’s start with a simple thought experiment. Suppose you had a league in which 5 clubs each had an equal chance every year of finishing in the top 4. What would be the likelihood of the exact same 4 of those 5 clubs finishing in the top 4 spots 4 years running?

Unless my maths are woefully wrong, the chances are 0.8% (a 20% chance of the 5th place club the first year finishing 5th again the next, multiplied out two more times, leads you to that result).

That is pretty strong evidence that the dominance of the top 4 in recent years is not a random result. The Sky 4 have not gotten where they are by accident. They’ve gotten where they are and stayed there because they really have been that much better than the competition, a position reinforced by their prize and Champions League money.

The question is whether Manchester City can change that at the first time of asking. Writers for the Guardian as well as a roundtable of former managers think they can.

Are they right? Let’s do some more maths. Last year City won 13 home games–pretty good, borderline top 4 stuff. Suppose they can do just a little better than that this year–win 14, draw 2, lose 3. That’s 44 points. To get to the 70 point mark, in the running for top 4 status, it will then take 26 points from 19 on the road. 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats will do the trick.

No disrespect, but if that’s the recipe, you don’t want one of the 7 road defeats to be at Blackburn, and in fact you suspect Blackburn are a great candidate to be one of your 7 needed away wins. Last season City rallied from 2 down late on through Daniel Sturridge and Robinho to grab a draw at Ewood Park; just 3 1/2 months ago, City strolled to a 3-1 home win over Rovers.

So the pressure is on from the opening whistle for Mark Hughes and for City; Blackburn away is the kind of fixture a top 4 contender needs to get a good result in. The big question at the start of the season then, is this: how fast can the new talent gel?

That question invites another: how quickly can Mark Hughes establish what the first 11 is and provide all members in the squad with a clear role? Both questions are especially apt at the back line. It is strange going into a season in which no one know what the first choice central defense pairing is going to be, especially at City where for years that position has been the bedrock of the team.

Kolo Toure will certainly start, but with whom? Richard Dunne? Onuoha? Richards? Lescott or Upson? Sylvan Distin (of all people!)? Tal Ben Haim? No one knows yet. Most City fans think it’s time for Dunne to move along and until a new signing arrives would rather see Nedum O in there if fit, but it’s not so easy to bench a club captain. Hughes’s first challenge is sorting out that position, then having the patience to stick with it rather than chop and change every time City concede a goal early in the campaign.

Other than that, the lineup looks surprisingly clear-cut given all the comings and goings. It looks highly likely that City will play with two kinds of lineups; a more defensive-minded line up with Nigel de Jong starting, and more offensive-minded line-up with de Jong on the bench. Here’s the defensive oriented lineup probably most likely to start on Saturday, with subs in parentheses:

GK- Given (Taylor)
LB- Bridge (Garrido)
CB– Toure
CB– Dunne (Nedum O)
RB-Zabaleta (Richards)
LCM-Barry
DCM-de Jong
RCM- Ireland (Wright-Phillips)
LW-Robinho (Petrov)
CF-Adebayor
RW- Tevez (Bellamy)

It would not be surprising to see Bellamy get the start ahead of Tevez on Saturday because of Tevez’s recent fitness issues and Bellamy’s fine goal vs. Celtic last week, but surely Tevez is the first choice long term.

The alternative line-up simply consists of subbing SWP in for de Jong and moving Barry to a more holding position. That’s the lineup I like best and the one I hope is picked from the opening kickoff for most home matches.

Other players likely to be regularly involved include Ben Haim (at least until a new defender comes), Vlad Weiss, and in a pinch Benjani and Etuhu. Santa Cruz, Michael Johnson, and Vincent Kompany are currently on the shelf injured.

In my judgment that line-up, in either variation, should be good enough to win a lot of matches, if the situation at the back can be sorted out. With the currently injured players coming back into consideration, getting those 21 wins Premier League wins is a real possibility and I’ll be disappointed if it doesn’t happen. The only way to do it is one win at a time, starting Saturday.

Speaking of Saturday, I plan to be live (or almost-live) blogging the match from 10 am US time. Stop on by if you’re watching or want a blow-by-blow account of the first match from can properly be called City’s most anticipated season in decades.